HIGH INFLATION: A QUASI-CONSTANT OF THE ECONOMIC SYSTEM IN ARGENTINA AFTER SECOND WORLD WAR

Abstract

The time series of the consumer price index, P(t), measured in Argentina since 1935 to 2015 is studied. This index is directly related to the inflation rate, π(t). It can be observed that until the end of the Second World War the inflation was low, butfrom 1945 to the beginning of the 70s decade there was an important average annual inflation which after the shock knownas “rodrigazo” entered in a spiral of inflation that became a hyperinflation with a peak reached in 1989. The hyperinflation occurred in our country is compared with those simultaneously developed in other countries of South America and Israel. The dynamics of the time series is analyzed in the frame of a model based on “adaptive inflation expectations” with positive feed back. In this formalism it is assumed that the growth rate index of prices, r(t) = ln [1+ π(t)], is a function of the value corresponding to the previous period. In the case of a regime of hyperinflation, r(t) and P(t) follow power laws with exponents depending on a parameter β. For 0 < β < 1 both quantities present singularities at the same finite time tc. This critical value indicates the probable moment for the collapse of an economy in crisis. The parameters β y tc are determined for the Argentinian hyperinflation. The behavior of data after 1990 is also examined. The crisis of 2001-2002 is discussed. We also analyze the important differences that appear after 2007 between the official series of P(t) and that measured by the Province of San Luis, and it is shown that this latter series exhibits a behavior similar to that found for the period 1944-1971. The predicted inflation for 2016 on the basis of San Luis’ CPI is 47 ± 12%. Finally, the evolution of the CONICET’s budget and the researchers’ wage after 2003 is studied.